美联储在周三(当地时间1月31日下午)的会议上如期维持利率不变,但在其政策声明中去除了进一步加息的措辞,表明可能在未来几个月降息。
美联储在周三(当地时间1月31日下午)的会议上如期维持利率不变,但在其政策声明中去除了进一步加息的措辞,表明可能在未来几个月降息。然而,美联储并未暗示即将降息,其主席鲍威尔的讲话显示出鹰派立场,导致金价回吐早盘涨幅,美国股市大幅下跌。
鲍威尔明确表示,3月降息并不是决策者的基线情境。美联储声明中提到,通胀尽管有所缓解,但仍处于高位,决策者仍高度关注通胀风险。美联储的决策者预计,今年将累计降息75个基点,但在有更多资料显示通胀持续下行之前,他们不愿就首次降息时间做出承诺。
市场分析师对美联储的声明和鲍威尔的讲话表示,美联储并不急于像市场预期的那样迅速放松货币政策,需要看到更加有把握的通胀资料,才能启动首次降息。这对预计最早将于3月开始降息的投资者来说是一个打击。
现货黄金和美国股市的反应表明了市场对美联储政策的灵敏度。在外汇市场,美元指数也体现了这种不确定性,周三探底回升,表明市场对降息预期的重新评估。
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During the meeting on Wednesday (local time January 31st afternoon), the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rates unchanged as expected but removed the language about further rate hikes from its policy statement, indicating the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months. However, the Fed did not suggest an imminent rate cut, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone led to a drop in gold prices and a significant decline in the U.S. stock market.
Powell clearly stated that a rate cut in March is not the baseline scenario for policymakers. The Fed’s statement noted that although inflation has eased, it remains high, and policymakers are still highly concerned about inflation risks. The Fed’s policymakers anticipate a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points this year but are not willing to commit to the timing of the first rate cut until more data indicates a continued downward trend in inflation.
Market analysts suggest that the Fed is not in a hurry to loosen monetary policy as quickly as the market expected, needing more conclusive data on inflation before initiating the first rate cut. This stance is a setback for investors who expected the rate cuts to begin as early as March.
The reactions of spot gold and the U.S. stock market reflect the market’s sensitivity to the Fed’s policy. In the forex market, the U.S. Dollar Index also showed this uncertainty, rebounding from its lows on Wednesday, indicating a market reassessment of the rate cut expectations.
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Forex trading involves high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. This information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Before engaging in forex trading, consult a financial advisor to assess your investment goals and risk tolerance. Trading in the forex market may result in losses exceeding the initial investment.
This post was last modified on 2024年2月4日 19:43
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